Thinking About Other People's Thoughts

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Summary
The right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) appears to be dedicated to thinking about other people's thoughts. You can alter people's judgments of others by interfering with the rTPJ's activity.

(Video: TED)

Correction
In the video, Rebecca Saxe mistakenly attributed the following quote to Alan Greenspan when it was actually said by Robert McCloskey:

I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realise that what you heard is not what I meant.

Commentary
Moral thinking is critical in many legal systems. In fact, the insanity defense depends on demonstrating that the defendant is incapable of moral thinking (temporarily or permanently). I imagine this research has far-reaching consequences.

Meta
Suppose you know that someone has a deficient rTPJ; how does that alter your perception of their judgments?

Crowdsourcing & Crowd Wisdom

Definition
Crowdsourcing is a combination of the words "crowd" and "outsourcing." It refers to work done by volunteers (usually online) that is traditionally outsourced.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
Crowdsourcing is a popular concept that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to solve a problem. This communal wisdom is especially popular online where we vote, rate, and assess content. James Surowiecki published a book called The Wisdom of Crowds on this subject (I haven't read it).

Many famous demonstrations involve a large audience guessing the number of jellybeans in a jar and having the guesses averaged. There have been interesting discussions about how it works, how it fails, and how it could have saved us from the financial crisis.

Meta
The answer to the previous meta is crowds.

See Also

• Amazon Mechanical Turk (Wikipedia) for an archetypal example.
• Netflix Prize for another example.
• Crowdsourcing - Controversy on Wikipedia for a brief discussion of possible issues.

Vending Machines for Crows

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Summary
Josh Klein has a fascinating discussion about crows, their intelligence, and potentials for mutually-beneficial (between humans and crows) scenarios.
Enjoy.

(Video: TED)

Meta 
So we've harnessed the power of children playing and the intelligence of crows; what's next?

Playgrounds that Generate Electricity

Summary
Empower Playgrounds has installed a carousel for children that generates electricity in Ghana.

(Photo: hlusta on Flickr)

Commentary
In 2008, the children at the Golden Sunbeam Montessori School in Ghana received a most welcome gift: a merry-go-round. But unlike other carousels, this one generates electricity that is used in LED lamps. A zip-line that generates electricity is set to go into operation soon.

Meta
What other naturally fun forces could be harnessed (but not enslaved)?

See Also

• BYU and Empower Playgrounds install electricity-generating merry-go-round in Ghana.
  
• Could it become a workwheel? for a statement of how students are not forced to play on the playground.
• Empower Playgrounds on Wikipedia.
  

Chiropractic Destroyed from Within

Summary
Chiropractors make numerous claims about their ability to treat symptoms by a method called chiropractic subluxation (not to be confused with medical subluxation with is visible in x-rays). A group of chiropractors has shown that the work of chiropractors provides no benefit over physical therapy.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
Like homeopathic remedies (a rant for another day), many have suggested that sublaxation is ineffective. Simon Singh was sued for libel for writing an article highlighting the ineffectiveness of chiropractors (the UK has "interesting" libel laws).

However, Harriet Hall, of the Science-Based Medicine blog, suggests that the "death knell" of chiropractic may have been rung. It is one thing for members of a profession to be introspective; it is another for them systematically refute the entire basis of their own profession. In the study they published, the chiropractors used a standard method for establishing causation known as Hill's Criteria. The criteria show the possibility of a causal relationship; not that it definitely exists. Yet, subluxation fails to satisfy any of the criteria. Sounds pretty bad for a field that's existed for 114 years.

Meta
What other professions should apply similar systematic rigor to their claims?

See Also

• The Dilute Homeopathy

Fear of Spiders and Snakes

Summary
Fear is an important part of how we make decisions. Everything from selecting car seats for our children to our policy decisions.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
Fear of snakes and spiders is relatively common (among humans). And thanks to shows like Fear Factor, we can all watch others try to overcome these primal fears from the comfort of our homes.

However, there is reason to believe that these fears are not strictly rooted in genetics (nature), but are learned (nurture). Yet, a recent study does show the role that nature might play, particularly for females, in facilitating fearful associations for certain things such as spiders and snakes.

In Does women's greater fear of snakes and spiders originate in infancy? David Rakison extends results from previous studies (done on adults) on the rapid association between fear and snakes and spiders (as opposed to mushrooms and flowers) to infants only 11 months old. The results show that infant girls learn the association between fearful facial expressions and fearful stimuli (snake, spider) more quickly than do boys. There was no similar distinction between non-fearful stimuli (mushroom, flower). The resulting hypothesis, then, is that certain types of fears are the products of evolutionary psychology.

Meta
What steps have you taken to mitigate a fear you've had? Were you successful?

Punctuation Marks

Summary
Punctuation marks help us understand written text. Incorrectly used punctuation, however, can result in serious consequences or humor.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
I remember once getting a lesson on the importance of commas:

Russian Tsars would issue verdicts by placing a single comma in pre-written papers that said "Death forbidden pardon."

Guilty: "Death, forbidden pardon."
Not-guilty: "Death forbidden, pardon."

And so, I was told, a single comma could save your life. There has been a resurgence in the life-saving virtue of the comma. Jest aside, a few years ago Canada saw a $2 million dollar comma dispute.

Occasionally, someone tries to invent a new punctuation mark, but they are rarely successful. A notable exception was the invention of the emoticon that now pervade informal written communication (of the typed, but not handwritten, variety). Emoticons were first proposed by Scott Fahlman on September 19th, 1982. The number and types of emoticons has grown to the point where they may be considered a form of micro-ASCII art.

Recently, there was an attempt to re-purpose the interrobang to represent a unit of levels of abstraction based on the very large, but mostly irrelevant, Cuil search engine.

Fun fact: The Metaist logo uses the because and therefore punctuation symbols from logic and math.

Meta
When have punctuation marks helped or harmed you?

See Also

• The "Blog" of "Unnecessary" Quotation Marks
• David Malki ! and his use of an exclamation point as an honorific.
• How to Use an Apostrophe for illustrated directions on the use of apostrophes.
• Wikipedia article on Punctuation Marks.
  (There are so many of which I've never heard!)

Steampunk

Definition
Steampunk is a genre of science fiction that imagines what the world would be like if Victorian steam-powered technology persisted into the modern era. It also refers to a visual style commonly associated with the late 18th to early 19th century as applied in a modern context.

"Will you give me a hint if I tell you the street I grew up on?"
(Image & Quote: Wondermark)

Commentary
While I've never read any of the zombie-enhanced literature, I do appreciate the resurgence of interest in 19th-century, albeit with a darker twist.

At its core, steampunk represents a culture of anachronism that is part of the cyberpunk speculative fiction genre. I should note that this is similar to, but distinct from, the activities endorsed by the Society for Creative Anachronism which targets pre-17th century Europe.

See Also

• Wondermark, an interesting comic that splices Victorian-era comics to discuss modern issues.
• Steampunk Falt-panel LCD for examples of the lengths to which people go to encase modern technology in brass.
• Information about the actual Victorian era (the one that really happened).

Gambling & Insurance Policies

Summary
Taking risks is part of everyday life. For the most part, people are good at dealing with risks with which they are familiar. Certain types of risks, however, when "intuitively" processed, lead to suboptimal behaviors.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
Schneier writes about risk a lot: our intuitions about, overreactions to, and essential need for risk. The most common failures of our risk intuition stem from cognitive biases related to rare, unknown, or voluntary risks.

In general, we tend to think that people are risk averse. But sometimes people seem to seek out risks-- such as playing the lottery. Why? A possible explanation is the framing effect. Consider the following case. You can have one of the following applied to your order:

• A $5 discount, or
• A $5 fee waived.

Which did you choose? The first sounds like you're getting a good deal; the second sounds meh. But they result in the same price!

Now imagine there's probability thrown in for good measure. Which of the following sounds like a better insurance sales pitch:

• There's a pretty good chance you won't loose anything.
• There's a small chance you'll loose a lot.

Now compare that with a lottery sales pitch:

• There's a pretty good chance you won't win anything.
• There's a small chance you'll win a lot.

In the first case (insurance), avoiding the loss sounds better. In the second case (lottery), the large gains seem attractive. In each case, the way the situation is framed changes which options seems better.

More on this later.

Rules, Discretion, Appeals & Audit

Summary
Many decisions in life require a delicate balance of trade-offs in order to get the best results. Recent examples highlight the need to restore such balance to everyday policies especially for so-called "Zero-Tolerance" policies.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
Schneier wrote a nice article on zero-tolerance policies which he refers to as "zero-discretion" policies. He brings up the recent story of the cub scout who brought a camping utensil to school as an example of an unbalanced policy gone awry.

Zero-discretion policies stem from the need to avoid inappropriate discrimination, that is to be "fair". To that end, no discrimination-- no matter how warranted-- must be allowed. You know you're dealing with a zero-discretion policy when the enforcer of the policy agrees with you, but "those are the rules, I can't do anything about it."

Schneier recommends a four-pronged solution:

1. Rules - Start with the rules & procedures.
2. Discretion - Throw in a dash of discretion to taste.
3. Appleals - Add plenty of opportunities for people to appeal.
4. Audit - Stir occasionally to ensure smooth consistency.

In short, provide some room for interpretation (discretion), and then make sure that that room doesn't get abused (appeals & audit).

Meta
What are some examples of situations where you've encountered "zero-tolerance" policies?

Boredom & Body Language

Summary
Figuring out if you're boring someone is a non-trivial task for some people. This is especially true for people who have a hard time reading social cues, such as people with autism.

(Image: Wikimedia)

Related

• PsychologyToday has a nice writeup about eight cues that indicate you're boring someone.
• Wired has an article about a robot that read body language.
• There's also The Definitive Book of Body Language by Barbara and Allen Pease which is more like a reference guide.
• Slashdot brings us news of a company that hires people with autism to test software. (I remember reading about a similar company, but cannot find the reference right now.) The claim is that they are good at predictable, repetitive tasks and are very attentive to details.

Meta
What do you do when you realize you're boring someone?

Intrinsic & Extrinsic Motivation

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Summary
Motivation is an important part of our lives. Managers seek motivated employees, teaches search for ways to motivate their students, and investigators try to piece together people's motives. Dan Pink discusses the "mismatch between what science knows and what business does."

(Video: TED)

Commentary
The important distinction in motivation is whether the motivator is intrinsic or extrinsic. Intrinsic motivators are ones that you feel you can control, such as your level of effort, whereas extrinsic motivators are outside of your control: rewards, punishments, etc.

Pink quotes from a 2005 commissioned by the Federal Reserve of Boston called "Large Stakes and Big Mistakes". Some random excerpts (emphasis added):

• "With some important exceptions, we observed that high reward levels can have detrimental effects on performance" (abstract).
  
  
• "[O]ne mechanism via which increased motivation can backfire is when it leads to greater self-consciousness" (p. 3).
  
  
• "[T]he performance of participants was always lowest in the high-payment condition when compared with the low- and mid-payment conditions together..." (p. 13).
  
  
• "Many existing institutions provide very large incentives for exactly the types of tasks we used here – those that require creativity, problem solving, and concentration. Our results challenge the assumption that increases in motivation necessarily lead to improvements in performance" (p. 19).
  
  
• "[W]e were surprised by the robustness of the effect..." (p. 19).

Meta
How do you cater to people's intrinsic motivations?

See Also

• Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs
• Psychological Barriers

Review: Economics in One Lesson

(Photo: Amazon)

Review
Economics in One Lesson (PDF version) is an excellent primer to economic thought. If I didn't know that it was published in 1940's, I could easily have assumed that it was a pamphlet discussing the modern financial, automotive, music, or newspaper industries.

The main purpose of the book is expose common economic fallacies that "are at last so prevalent that they have almost become a new orthodoxy" (Hazlitt vii). This is accomplished through two dozen "lessons" that derive from a single lesson summed up by Hazlitt as the essence of economics:

From this aspect, therefore, the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.
(emphasis his; Hazlitt 5)

The Broken Window
The first of the "applied" lessons is based on the parable of the broken window as explained by Frédéric Bastiat.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

What follows is my brief paraphrase of the parable. Imagine a hoodlum throws a brick through a baker's window. The baker runs out of his shop and starts chasing after the rock-thrower, but is unsuccessful. As the baker walks back to his shop, a small crowd of people gather around the his window-less shop. After the customary outrage, someone points out a bright side: some glass-maker just got $200 worth of business. Moreover, the glass-maker can use those $200 to spend on other merchants who, in turn, can spend money on yet other merchants; the flow of money benefits all. The logical conclusion, then, is that the hoodlum should continue to break people's windows for the benefit of society.

If the conclusion sounds strange it is only because the crowd failed to consider the larger picture. While it is true that some glass-maker will receive $200 worth of business, it is also the case that the baker, who started the day with $200 and a window, is now left with only a window. That is, the net worth of society went down by the value of a window; that other windows can be manufactured is irrelevant because had the hooligan not broken the window, the baker would not need a new window.

While it may seem obvious that destruction leads to reduced net-worth, there are many ways of obscuring the destruction to make it more palatable to the masses, and Hazlitt covers many such fallacies in eminently accessibly prose.

The reader is urged to read at least the first two chapters of the book because many future posts will depend on understanding the "Fundamental Lesson of Economics" and it's applications.

Arrow's Impossibility Theorm

I seem to be posting a lot about paradoxes recently. I'll probably take a little break from paradoxes after this one.

Summary
In 1951, Kenneth Arrow demonstrated that it is not possible to have a "fair" voting system that satisfied the following three criteria (imagine the group is voting on which fruit to eat: apples or pears):

1. If every voter prefers apples to pears, then the group prefers apples to pears. (Sound familiar? It's called Pareto efficiency.)
2. If every voter prefers apples to pears, then even if bananas are added to the set of options, the group will still prefer apples to pears.
3. There is no dictator.

This is known as Arrow's Impossibility Theorem.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
The actual details of the theorem are interesting, and I refer you to Wikipedia (for those who are interested). There are situations, however where item 2 (where we added bananas) doesn't hold: imagine the game rocks-paper-scissors. In such a case, adding an alternative transforms the straightforward choice into a cyclic choice. I sometimes see this scenario when people compare different aspects of multiple candidates' platforms (or when they're choosing which car / laptop / soap / pants to purchase).

Sometimes, the trade-offs are hard; but sometimes they're impossible.

[Resolved] Blogger Issue: Comments Form

This post describes an issue with Blogger software that has been resolved.

Several readers have identified issues with the comment form. In one case, arrow keys (or CTRL combinations), and in the other, the form was missing altogether. I have replicated the first error (in Firefox) and the second (in Chrome), but after restarting the browsers, both errors appear to have been fixed.

If you are having issues with commenting, please email metaist.blog@gmail.com with a brief description of the problem and how it can be reproduced.

Zeno's Paradox

Summary
Zeno's Paradox involves a race between a tortoise and Achilles that suggests that motion is an illusion.

This is not a picture of Zeno of Elea.
(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
I remember when I was first introduced to this paradox in 8th grade; it was utterly puzzling (until I heard a solution). A simplified version goes something like this:

Achilles and the tortoise are having a 1000 paces race, but the tortoise has a head start of 800 paces (Achilles is much faster than the tortoise). As the tortoise inches forward, Achilles makes a plan.

First, he'll get to the halfway point (let's call it Bob) between himself and the tortoise. Of course, to get to Bob, Achilles realizes, he has to get to the halfway point between himself and Bob (let's call it Jane). And before he can consider anything else, he must first get to the halfway point between himself and Jane (called Sam). [...]

As Achilles continues to think through his plan, he realizes he can never even catch up to the tortoise, let alone win the race.

When viewed abstractly, the problem seems to show that nothing can ever pass anything else-- that is the motion is an illusion. Until the early 20th century, there wasn't really a way to handle this paradox appropriately. However, with the advent of infinite series, we can say that the reason Achilles does pass the tortoise is because if you add up all the little pieces (1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16 ...) you get 1 (which represents the total distance between Achilles and the tortoise).

Fun fact: Zeno's paradoxes are considered some of the earliest examples of reductio ad absurdum, also known as proof by contradiction.

Reader Question: What is Google Wave?

This post is a response to a reader question. Please email your questions to metaist.blog@gmail.com. Not all questions will be answered.

Question
An anonymous reader asks: What is Google Wave and why would I want to use it?

Not this kind of wave, but close.
(Photo: Wikimedia)

Summary
Google Wave is a new technology that is supposed to combine three existing technologies:

1. Email
2. Instant Messaging (IM), and
3. Wikis.

Email
Most of us are familiar with email. Briefly, it's static distributed content. In other words, one person can send out some information to a bunch of other people.

Instant Messaging
Instant messaging, however, is dynamic-- you interact with another person (or multiple people) at once.

Wikis
Wikis are collaboratively editable documents. The most famous example is Wikipedia, but there are others (including private wikis such as those found within corporations). Wikis are basically "dynamic content". So now, the content itself can change over time, but everyone can see previous version of the content if they choose.

Wave
Google's conception of a Wave, therefore, is a wiki where you see the changes in real-time (sort of like Google Documents). Here's how it works:

1. You create a new wave and add some collaborators.
2. The new wave appears in the collaborators "inbox".
3. Any collaborator (including you, the creator) can start to edit the wave.
4. Anyone looking at the wave (i.e. one of the collaborators) can see who's editing (and where on the page they're editing) in real time.
5. The wave can have robot collaborators who perform menial tasks (like "replace all the YouTube links with YouTube videos").
6. The wave can also have "gadgets" that collaborators interact with (such as a "survey gadget" that surveys people).
7. At any time, you can scroll back to see previous states of the wave all the way back to its creation.

Uses
So where would you use a wave? The answer largely depends on how you handle collaboration. Nature has a write-up about how scientists could use waves to collaborate and use robot collaborators to comb through papers and cross-reference, for example, gene names in databases. More mundane uses might include organizing a camping trip, but you're really only limited by your imagination.

Meta
Have you used Google Wave? Did you find it useful? What did you like / dislike?

Feedback Friday: December 2009

Summary
The Metaist has been around for almost a month now and, contrary to my welcome notice, posting has been somewhat regular (except this past week; sorry about that).

This past month I was pleasantly surprised to find that about twelve of you read this blog somewhat regularly. I've gotten a bunch of feedback that this blog is "very intense" and doesn't cover subjects such as what I "ate for breakfast this morning". Such reactions are understandable since I typically don't discuss what I had for breakfast on this blog.

I typically don't discuss what I had for breakfast.
(Photo: Wikimedia)

Feedback
Yet, I would like to make The Metaist interesting to a (somewhat) wide audience. Technical subjects don't usually lend themselves to wider audiences, but I'd like to try and present interesting explanations of those subjects. To that end, I'd like to know what sorts of things you folks find interesting.

By participating now, you have a chance to help shape the direction of this quirky little blog. While I don't expect it to ever become extremely popular (but I don't rule it out either), the ideas you share here will get exposure to a small, but dedicated, audience-- something that we should leverage. Would anyone like to guest post? About what would you write? What do you get from reading this blog?

Please submit your ideas in the comments below.
Thanks.

Dan Bull Sings Open Letters

Summary
Dan Bull, a musician, has written an interesting open letter to Lord Mandelson on the subject of disconnecting people from the Internet on the basis of alleged copyright violations. Below that, I include his previous open letter to Lilly Allen on a similar subject.
Enjoy.

(Video: YouTube)

(Video: YouTube)

Russell's Paradox

Summary
Russell's paradox describes a fundemental conundrum with set theory that is sometimes illustrated by way of a story about a barber.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Paradox
This presentation is a modified version of Russell's original presentation.

There once was a platoon of men who were very punctilious about following orders. One day, the commander decided that the men needed to look less disheveled. One of the men, a barber named Bob, proposed that he shave everyone everyday. Some of the men complained and asked if they could shave themselves instead. As a compromise, the commander ordered Bob to shave all and only the men who do not shave themselves.

The paradox is this: who shaves Bob? If he shaves himself, then he ends up being prohibited from shaving himself. In which case he must shave himself. Continue ad infinitum.

Commentary
The significance of this paradox was that it undermined the existence of certain types of sets, potentially undermining all of set theory. There were some interesting responses, but ultimately Gödel showed the inescapable nature of such paradoxes for most logical systems.

The Importance of Numeracy

Definition
Numeracy is a portmanteau of "numerical literacy" and refers to the understanding of mathematical concepts such as orders of magnitude, probability, and statistics.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Conjecture
Certain concepts in math are necessary for critical thinking. Many people, however, struggle to learn these concepts well thereby reducing the effectiveness of their policy choices.

Commentary
In a country of over $12 trillion dollars deficit (and counting), about 80% of people cannot concieve of the magnitude of a trillion. Very small quantities are equally confusing, because people are unaccustomed to seeing them in their everyday lives. However, thanks to wonderful videos and interactive comparisons you can get a better sense of how orders of magnitude work.

Of course, that's only a very small part of overall numeracy. Probability and statistics, it can be argued, play an important role in everyday discourse, especially as we continue to be bombarded by facts and figures of every sort. When I was younger, someone told me a joke:

Two boys are walking home from school and one asks the other,
"What's the chance that I'll see a man riding a dinosaur in the street?"
His friend thinks for a moment, and responds,
"Fifty percent. Either you will or you won't."

At the time I recall laughing very hard. As I got older, this joke became less funny for I encountered more and more people who surprised me with their ignorance and actually maintain variations of this sort of thinking.

I currently do not have any solutions to this problem, yet I do not believe it unsolvable. Part of the issue may lie with trying to solve the wrong problem. But that will have to be another post.

More on this later.

Computational Theory for Lawyers

Definition
Computational Theory is a branch of mathematics that morphed into computer science. Among its goals is to look at a problem and ask: Is there a series of steps that will solve this problem? Those steps are also known as an algorithm, and finding a fast & efficient algorithm for something people care about, such as searching for a piece of information, is often a great way to start a business.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Commentary
Groklaw has an interesting (and very long) discussion about computational theory and how it applies to patent law. From the article:

For example consider I write a program. Some outside party has written a similar program. This party sees my program and thinks I infringe on his proprietary rights. There are two scenarios depending on whether he makes his claim according to copyright law or patent law.

For claims of copyright infringement the text of the source code matters. If I wrote my program independently and I can prove the texts are different, I don't infringe on his rights. This is an intensional point of view.

For claims of patent infringement then differences in the text of the source code won't matter. It won't even matter if the code is written in a different programming language. If my program uses the same method that is covered by the patent according to whatever legal test of "same method" is applicable, I will infringe. This is an extensional perspective.

The notion of an intensional and extensional perspectives is actually an amazing insight into the world of mathematics that I hope to discuss more as I make my way through the excellent book Autonomy of Mathematical Knowledge by Curtis Franks. (Disclosure: the author is a friend of mine.)

Meta
The basic question is how can we say that two items or methods "are the same?" In what way are they the same? Computational theory suggests that two methods are the same if they are reducible to each other. That is, if under the same circumstances they both produce the same result, the methods are considered the same.

More on this later.

See Also (Updated 2010-02-24)

• Review: The Autonomy of Mathematical Knowledge for my review of that book.

Review: I Will Teach You To Be Rich

(Photo: Amazon)

Review
Ramit Sethi (that I guy I quote a lot), author of the website IWillTeachYouToBeRich.com, published a book by the same name about personal finance for twentysomethings.

Although I knew the book would not differ much from the content available on his website, it was pleasant to have Ramit's thoughts presented in close proximity to each other rather than spread out across the years I've been following his blog.

Most of his advice revolves around a single theme: stop loosing money by doing nothing. It occurred to me that while in the world of economics, such appeals to opportunity cost are customary, the world of twentysomethings would much rather feel guilty about doing nothing rather than actually figuring out what needs to be done and doing it. (Please pardon the gross oversimplifications; there are many responsible twenty year-olds, but few who think they can do anything about their finances.)

The blog contains much, if not all, of the advice in the book, but the book highlighted three things I had failed to implement (though I read them on the blog). First, I finally took Ramit's advice about negotiation, and negotiated a bill. I clearly have more work to do in that department, but it was good to have a plan of how to approach the conversation, and not feel weird about talking about money. To Ramit's credit, he portrays negotiation as asymmetric warfare: you, a novice in negotiation, are battling with experts who negotiate with people every day. However, you needn't become a Spartan to negotiate effectively. In fact, being pleasant (and smiling) makes it even easier. Negotiation is a fascinating phenomenon in the world of human interaction; it has elements of conflict, optimization and compromise. Each party seeks to optimize results that favor him or her, yet done right both parties can win. A critical part of Ramit's advise is to avoid yes-or-no questions when you really want to ask "how can we make this work?" That one question saved me $180 (over six months) for 2 minutes worth of effort.

The next piece of advise I had failed to implement was to synchronize your bills with your paycheck (to the extent possible). The idea is to have a more predictable and automated flow of money. While I've got much of the flow nailed down, I never thought to change the billing date to a common date; we'll see how this works out over the coming months and years.

Lastly, the book provided a clearer perspective on what it takes to buy a house. Again, this isn't anything that Ramit hadn't said previously about buying a house. It was just easier to focus on his points when I was reading a book (about finance!) rather than reading my daily blogs. The only change in behavior this created was creating a little "dashboard" for important goals. Previously the goals were general (house, travel, etc.); now they are very specific (20% down payment, trip to California, etc.). This small change forced me to also estimate the cost and, by extension, the date of fulfillment of each of the goals. Again, the payoff is mostly psychological, but it helps take down some psychological barriers.

Overall, I recommend this book to most people as an example of how to set up an automatic system that helps alleviate certain kinds of stress. It's an excellent short read and his good humored presentation doesn't hurt either.

Advances in Printer Ink

Summary
A recent IEEE Spectrum featured an article about an advance in ink-less printing called ZINK.

(Image: Wikimedia)

Commentary
As consumers, we're familiar with the high price of ink. If you think gasoline is expensive, how's $8,000 a gallon for HP ink? And it doesn't help that many printers have been "designed" to produce false out-of-ink messages.

There have been several attempts at lowering the cost of printer ink. In 2007, Kodak introduced a printer that used their "pigment-based ink" and was supposed to revolutionize the printer world. I'm not sure how successful, they've been, but it put the issue of ink pricing at the forefront of many consumers minds.

The most recent attempt at overcoming printer ink pricing comes from a Polaroid spin-off called ZINK (for Zero-ink) that has been working for decades on creating colorless, ink-less paper that uses localized heat to change the color at each point. Several companies have cameras that also print 2x3 inch photos using ZINK: the Polaroid PoGo, Dell Wasabi, and the TOMY xiao.

It's fascinating to see the old fallen giants Kodak and Polaroid wake from their slumber and try to compete in their former markets adapting to the digital realities of today. If their technologies advance and expand, we may see a disruption in the printer market similar to that of the '80s.

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Definition
An structure that describes human desires and motivations in terms of tiers of fulfillment.

(Image: Wikipedia)

Commentary
The basic premise behind Maslow's hierarchy is that people's needs are organized in such a way that when lower needs (e.g., sleep) are unfulfilled, it is impossible to focus on higher needs (e.g., self-esteem). Recently, a friend questioned the nature of this hierarchy citing examples of religious people who clearly appear to be fulfilled at the highest level (self-actualization), yet lacked many of the securities provided by the lower levels (e.g., food, employment, health).

Alderfer proposed a revised version known as ERG Theory in which needs are also grouped into Existence, Relatedness, and Growth categories. However, neither of these theories explains how people could work on higher levels while lower levels remain unfulfilled.

Conjecture
A possible explanation might be the inverse of the "regression" theory that Alderfer proposed. He suggested that when a higher need was unfulfilled, lower needs received more attention. I propose that if a higher need is over-fulfilled, lower needs can be (temporarily) ignored.

Update (2009-11-23) A friend suggested that perhaps only people who have had lower levels satisfied in the past are able to refocus efforts into higher levels when those lower levels are subsequently unfulfilled because they at least experienced those levels.

Meta
Is it useful to organize human needs in this way? I'm aware of some applications in education and business, are there any others? Do you know of alternatives?

Pomodoro Technique

Technique
The Pomodoro Technique is a method for improving productivity by creating focused periods of attention as well as forcing breaks at regular intervals.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Definition
A pomodoro is an indivisible unit of time (usually 25 minutes), plus a short break (3-5 minutes). Also the word for tomato in Italian. (The inventor, Francesco Cirillo, used a tomato kitchen timer when he came up with this technique.)

Commentary
Although I've only been using this technique for several months, I'm finding it an increasingly pleasant way to organize my day. In particular, I enjoy the focus on the down-time and context switching. Here's my adapted version:

• Task Lists - Believe it or not, I use a plain text file. In fact, I make a new text file every month for all the things that need to be done (unfinished items from previous months carry over). This text file is split into two parts: the top part has all the unscheduled tasks (i.e., tasks that have not been assigned to a day) and the bottom is a reverse-chronological list of tasks by date.
• Scheduling - Most days start by selecting which unscheduled tasks I'll do today. Occasionally, I create a "check-on-the-status" tasks which are derived from special unscheduled tasks that indicate that I'm waiting for something (e.g., someone needs to get back to me). Tasks are organized roughly in the order I want to accomplish them, and I add estimates for the number of pomodoros I anticipate certain tasks to take. Since pomodoros are indivisible I group small tasks together and estimate the total time for all of them.
• Countdown - I use an online stopwatch to count-down 25 minutes during which time I work on the next task in the list. If I finish early, I try to look over my work. When the bell rings I force myself to stop immediately.
• Recordkeeping - I use a variant of the notation in the book. Instead of "X"'s, I record the pomodoro number. This way, if I accomplish multiple tasks, I record the pomodoro during which they were accomplished. Internal interruptions (e.g., hunger, tiredness) are indicated by an apostrophe ('), external interruptions by a dash (-), and a lost pomodoro by a slash (/). (Pomodoros are considered indivisible, so if you get really off-track, you have to reset the clock.)
• Break - When the stopwatch rings, I usually take a three minute break, and take care of most of the interruptions that occurred during the previous pomodoro.

External interruptions are dealt with by announcing that you "are in the middle of a pomodoro" which usually works. Sometimes, however, I loose my pomodoro because of an external distraction that is anything but brief. But it's okay, because practitioners of the technique know that "the next pomodoro will go better."

Discontent Grows with Google: Wave, Colsure and Go

Commentary
Recently, programmers have been grumbling about Google on several fronts, although none of the issues seem unsurmountable. Complaints about (the currently invite-only) Google Wave and, more recently, Google's Closure Library and Go programming language, all seem to wonder at how these formerly Google-internal technologies could lack Google's characteristic polish.

Now is the winter of the programmer's discontent.
(Photo: Wikimedia)

For example, Lukas Mathis is concerned about Wave's scrollbars, while others seem to have more general concerns. Similarly, while Closure seems to be providing the world with Google's internal toolset, Dmitry Baranovskiy points out that the library is riddled with poorly written code leaving many scratching their heads thinking "how could this come from Google?"

And then there's Go. Go is Google's new programming language that is attracting a lot of attention. Aside from the previously used name (a surprisingly lively discussion), apparently many of its advantages (namely its compiled, concurrent nature) are apparently not as stellar as Google supposes.

Yet unlike other companies that dig themselves into a hole, Google has a great escape plan: outsource the work to the community, and with enough interest, they'll polish your product for you. This only works, of course, as long as Google continues to give off the impression that they care about the communal input. Without that respect, Google is stuck under an avalanche.

Inbox Zero

Technique
Inbox Zero is a technique for processing your email and somewhat related to the concepts David Allen put forth in Getting Things Done.

(Video: YouTube)

Commentary
I have found Inbox Zero effective at dealing with the psychological barriers around checking and responding to email. I've adapted the process so that for every email (starting with the oldest) I choose one of the following actions:

• Label & Archive - This is the most common action since most of my email is purely information. By using filters, most the email is pre-labeled and I usually just archive it (or delete it if it's an unsolicited advertisement).
• Star It - I choose this for emails that require me either do something or that indicate that I'm waiting for something to happen (e.g., receipts for an order).
• Respond - Usually to acknowledge receipt of an email, or provide someone with a particular piece of information. This must take less than two minutes.

After all the emails have been processed, I view all the starred emails. I add all the items I need to do to my task list. (I will discuss how I process the task list in a future post.)

In the past two years, I have maintained an empty inbox at home and at work and have found that I spend more time doing what needs to be done rather then trying to keep it all in my head.

Psychological Barriers

Definition
A psychological barrier is a perception that impedes an action usually by creating a sense that the activity is overly burdensome or that some unstated prerequisite is unfulfilled. The result is often procrastination.

Psychological barriers are not insurmountable, but they're annoying.
(Photo: Wikimedia)

Example
In a study of 401(k) enrollment, only 40% of employees took advantage of matching programs (note that this is basically free money). Most employees viewed the task of enrolling as annoying and simply took the passive do-nothing route.

Ramit Sethi likes to talk about psychological barries and how to overcome them. In that post, he also mentions how one could use psychological barriers to intentionally prevent oneself from doing an action. For example, people who have trouble using credit cards responsibly can freeze it in a block of ice so that it is available for emergencies, but is otherwise annoying to access.

Commentary
Psychological barriers provide insight into the origin of responses such as "I didn't have a pen at the time" in response to why someone might forfeit thousands of dollars in matched retirement income-- the perception of complexity (no matter how small) can shift one's decision away from even ridiculously beneficial activities.

Moreover, we gain insight into the world of advertising. Note how advertisers try to tear down the barriers between you and an order for their product ("order today", "act now", "call now", "but wait there's more") and how they try to create barriers for the "problem" that their product "solves". Of course we always knew that television is the opiate of the masses.

Easy Big Wins

Conjecture
Optimizations that are easier to implement and that have a higher return on investment are better than the alternative optimizations. Furthermore, most popular optimizations do not deliver high returns on investment.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Technique
Ramit Sethi outlines (in eye-catching ways) how one can figure out which optimizations are worth your effort. Mostly, his advice hinges on differentiating yourself from everyone else:

As you can see, many Big Wins are actually easily within reach — if you choose the right targets and differentiate yourself from others. While you’ll have a few areas of life where you’ll have to go up against formidable competition, many other areas of life are wide open.

Pre-Weekend Summary (2009-11-13)

Have a good weekend.

Summary
This week Schneier taught us that thieves prefer black luggage, that anti-virus is still a good idea (despite it's moderate effectiveness), and that there are new access control mechanisms as well as methods to mitigate rootkits.

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Reddit was full of cappuccino drawings (e.g., Saturn, a dragon, and the Mona Lisa). Speaking of coffee, Matthew Inman taught us some interesting facts about its origins and how it works.

XKCD was sympathetic and political; Wondermark was apiarian; Abstruse Goose was psychological.

Lukas Mathis explained why people don't realize their camcorders have touch screens, and Techdirt exposed Murdoch's ridiculous, not-connected-to-reality thinking.

Zombies in Math and Literature

Definition
A zombie is typically a reanimated corpse. Also known as the "un-dead."

Commentary
While zombies are not as popular as brains, the former are increasingly the subject of discussion. For example, the recent film Zombieland and the video game Left 4 Dead both feature zombies. Various defenses and survival guides exist to help you deal with potential zombie attacks.

Brains are still more popular than zombies.
(Image: Google Trends)

However, the emergence of zombies in non-entertainment fields is interesting. David Sirota of In These Times has an interesting article on The Zombie Zeitgeist which discusses this new/old phenomenon and how society is dealing with "apocalyptic anxiety".

See Also

• When Zombies Attack!: Mathematical Modelling of an Outbreak of Zombie Infection (via Schneier)
• Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
• Sense and Sensibility and Sea Monsters
  (not about zombies, but related)

Fairness: Equity, Equality and Relative Need

Conjecture
When people discuss "fairness" they are actually referring to either equity, equality or relative need. Or (like children) they mean "it's not what I want."

Definitions
Equity is how a checkout line (queue) works: people line up and are served in order. This is also know as "first-come, first-serve." Notice that we don't randomly select among the customers waiting to be served (equality) nor do we order the customers by the number of items in their cart (relative need).

(Photo: Wikimedia)

Equality is how a one-ticket-per-person raffle works. Assuming the winning ticket is chosen at random, the probability of winning is the same for each ticket-holder. We don't award the prize to the first person who buys a ticket (equity), nor do we award the prize to whomever wants or needs it the most (relative need).

Relative need is how an emergency room works. If Alice is waiting to have a splinter removed and Bob needs immediate surgery, the relative needs of Bob take priority over the needs of Alice and Bob is served first. While in some cases, we'd process patients in the order in which they arrived (equity), it seems rather arbitrary to select patients at random (equality).

Example
A simple example is affirmative action. Both sides of the debate tend to complain about "fairness," yet both refer to different policies. One side demands equality or equity, while the other wants a policy of relative need. Of course, such realizations do not solve the problems involved, but they do clarify the locus of dispute.

Meta
How do we decide which policy of "fairness" to apply in a given situation?

Pareto Efficiency

Definition
If a change from X to Y results in at least one agent better off without making any agents worse off, we call Y a Pareto improvement relative to X. If no more Pareto improvements are possible, the situation is said to be Pareto efficient or Pareto optimal.

(Image: Wikipedia)

Meta
When thinking about a proposed Pareto improvement, consider the resistance to change on the part of the people who will implement your proposal. You may realize that your proposal is no longer a Pareto improvement because of the non-monetary costs involved.